May 23, 2023
The debt ceiling gets a lot of attention right now—but either outcome is bullish for gold. While unthinkable, if the U.S. government defaults it would be a blow to the US economy and dollar. Raising the debt ceiling would lead be more borrowing but not addressing the underlying causes could lead to a crisis—higher inflation and higher interest rates for starters.
Apr 19, 2023
The shocking closure of two US banks, the Fed slowing interest rate hikes, and a weakening US dollar all roiled markets and led to a spike in gold demand. Our ITV quarterly report summarizes how gold and silver and other major asset classes performed in the first quarter of an already volatile year. We then outline the major catalysts to watch as the rest of the year unfolds.
Jan 25, 2023
War! Inflation! Rate hikes! Crashing cryptos! Sinking stock markets! A soaring US dollar and hints of recession all highlighted a tumultuous 2022. Despite several headwinds and confusion over gold’s weakness in the face of high inflation, the price ended the year basically flat, with silver and platinum rising. Our quarterly report examines the performance of precious metals and other major asset classes in the fourth quarter of 2022, along with the full year. We also highlight the conditions that could impact them in 2023, a sobering summary that suggests higher prices are coming for precious metals.
Nov 16, 2022
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been insistent that the central bank will lower inflation to 2%. “We are resolute in our goal to fight inflation… we have the tools to bring it down to 2%” are just some of the public comments coming from his office. Should we believe him? After all, he said last year that inflation would be transitory, interest rates wouldn’t rise until 2024, and a recession is “unlikely” (virtually guaranteed now). As an analyst I like to ask questions. So… How successful has he been at lowering the CPI since they started aggressively raising rates? Are the current circumstances surrounding inflation likely to be resolved from higher interest rates? What does history say about hiking rates to lower inflation? Let’s answer each of those questions and see what we find…
Nov 9, 2022
It's out! The showdown between the Fed and Gold, my keynote from New Orleans Conf.
Oct 25, 2022
As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made clear last month, the US central bank will be “resolute” in fighting inflation. That translated into sharply higher interest rates, and as a result a soaring US dollar. The Fed approved a third consecutive 75-basis-point hike in September, the fifth raise this year, the most aggressive move since the 1980s. The US dollar soared in response, pressuring many assets including precious metals since they’re priced universally in dollars. Our ITV report looks at the performance of precious metals and other major asset classes in the third period of 2022, along with year-to-date. We also highlight the conditions that will likely impact them in the final quarter of the year.
Sep 28, 2022
I attended the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado last week. This is where the big boys and girls go—fund managers, institutional investors, bank analysts, top geologists, and CEOs of hundreds of mining companies (not just their investor relations people). It’s not your normal investment conference. There are presentations from companies and industry leaders, but it’s mostly one-on-one meetings with companies. I actually had to apply and be interviewed before I was accepted to attend. This is not really designed for the retail investor. But it was very productive, as I got to rub elbows with some of the more well-known and successful people in the industry (and some not so successful). It was also in a beautiful setting, an outdoor playground for skiers and hikers.
Aug 8, 2022
Convinced a recession is here? Worried the stock market isn’t done crashing? It’s a distinct possibility things could get worse. Which raises a natural question: how does gold—and all precious metals for that matter—perform during these events? If we use history as a guide, there’s a clear tendency with all of them…
Jul 21, 2022
It was a rout. Other than oil and some commodities, virtually nothing was left unscathed last quarter. Our ITV report examines the performance of gold and other major asset classes during the second quarter of 2022, plus YTD. We also look at the conditions that could impact precious metals in the second half of the year.
Jun 3, 2022
I know silver investors are discouraged. The price action doesn’t reflect what we think it should, particularly when inflation’s been spiking. There are valid reasons for the lag in price—a soaring US dollar, a perceived drop in industrial demand from recession or stagflation fears, a crashing stock market forcing investors to liquidate other holdings—but those don’t make us feel any better. I think one of Mike Maloney’s strengths is that he views trends through the lens of history. As he’s said many times, the further you look in the past, the further you can see into the future. I decided to employ that strategy with the gold/silver ratio, to examine how silver has performed during its biggest declines over the past 50 years, to give us some insight into what it might do in the next decline. As any silver investor knows, a drop in the ratio means silver is outperforming gold—I wanted to see just how much. I found the results of this research interesting. See what you think…